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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 67

Buffalo Bills 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 20

What Actually Happened

(3:44) 17-J.Allen up the middle to BUF 35 for 2 yards (55-F.Clark, 47-D.Harris).

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.33 EP
  • 24% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 67, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 25, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model