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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 15

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(4:52) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles up the middle to BUF 9 for 6 yards (7-T.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +2.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.26 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 15, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model