Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 11 at the 76

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

(13:05) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to NO 26, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 89-R.Shaheed to NO 32 for 6 yards (51-M.Bailey).

The Three Options

GO -2.70 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
67% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 76, worth -4.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model