4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 66

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(12:47) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to NO 25, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.44 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 66, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 24, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP