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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 16

New Orleans Saints 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(10:32) 3-W.Lutz 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.37 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 16, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model