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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 13

New Orleans Saints 23 – Cincinnati Bengals 21

What Actually Happened

(11:11) 3-W.Lutz 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.85 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 13, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 23, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model