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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 20 at the 34

Cincinnati Bengals 21 – New Orleans Saints 26

What Actually Happened

(3:47) 2-E.McPherson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.74 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 34, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 44, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model