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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 69

New Orleans Saints 26 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

What Actually Happened

(2:16) 4-B.Gillikin punts 29 yards to CIN 40, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.24 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 69, worth -3.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 27, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model