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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 17 at the 48

New Orleans Saints 26 – Cincinnati Bengals 30

What Actually Happened

(:34) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete deep right to 1-M.Callaway.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
What Happened
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +1.81 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 48, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.76 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.78 EP