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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 66

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(9:30) (No Huddle) 10-C.Rush pass incomplete short right to 89-P.Hendershot (24-J.Bradberry).

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.56 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 66, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.26 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 24, worth -1.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model