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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 33

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(7:58) 4-J.Elliott 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.51 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 33, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 43, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model