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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 75

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(13:24) 5-B.Anger punts 60 yards to PHI 15, Center-45-M.Overton. 18-B.Covey to PHI 29 for 14 yards (87-J.Ferguson).

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.67 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 75, worth -4.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -2.17 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 32, worth -2.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP