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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 37

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(14:10) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 83-M.Bandy to DEN 33 for 4 yards (49-A.Singleton).

The Three Options

GO +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +4.10 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 37, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.76 EP
  • 67% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 46, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT +0.21 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model