4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 17 at the 19

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(:57) 6-D.Hopkins 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +5.95 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 19, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 29, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model