4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 12

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(9:12) 6-D.Hopkins 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +3.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.19 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 12, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 22, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.41 EP