Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 20 at the 64

Denver Broncos 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 13

(5:22) 17-C.Waitman punts 43 yards to LAC 21, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 1-D.Carter to LAC 30 for 9 yards (16-T.Cleveland).

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.93 EP
76% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model