4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 15 at the 66

Denver Broncos 16 – Los Angeles Chargers 16

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 17-C.Waitman punts 41 yards to LAC 25, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-48-M.Fraboni.

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +1.75 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 66, worth -2.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model