Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 56

Los Angeles Chargers 16 – Denver Broncos 16

(:01) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep right (27-D.Mathis).

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP

What Happened

72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +0.09 EP
28% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 56, worth -0.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model