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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 16 at the 44

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(8:49) 6-M.Haack punts 32 yards to JAX 12, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.42 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 44, worth -1.92 EP
KICK -0.81 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model