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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 24

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(:25) 7-C.McLaughlin 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.27 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 34, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model