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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 48

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(12:19) 6-M.Haack punts 33 yards to JAX 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.38 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 48, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -1.23 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP