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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 32

Jacksonville Jaguars 21 – Indianapolis Colts 19

What Actually Happened

(1:14) (Shotgun) 72-W.Little reported in as eligible. 1-T.Etienne right end pushed ob at IND 34 for -2 yards (45-E.Speed).

The Three Options

GO +2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.83 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 32, worth -1.56 EP
KICK +0.56 EP
  • 69% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 42, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model