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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 42

Jacksonville Jaguars 21 – Indianapolis Colts 26

What Actually Happened

(5:48) 16-T.Lawrence right guard to IND 40 for 2 yards (99-D.Buckner; 94-T.Lewis).

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.91 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 42, worth -1.83 EP
KICK -0.46 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model