Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 14 at the 68

Cleveland Browns 6 – New England Patriots 17

(9:18) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to NE 23, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 39 for 16 yards (30-D.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.69 EP
68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 68, worth -3.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model