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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 63

New England Patriots 17 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(7:20) 7-J.Bailey punts 35 yards to CLE 28, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.69 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 63, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 21, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model