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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 76

Cleveland Browns 6 – New England Patriots 24

What Actually Happened

(4:42) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to NE 32, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 43 for 11 yards (29-H.Miller).

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.99 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 76, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 34, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model