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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 55

New England Patriots 24 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(2:23) 7-J.Bailey punts 43 yards to CLE 12, Center-49-J.Cardona. 80-C.Rogers to CLE 19 for 7 yards (41-B.Schooler).

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.61 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 55, worth -3.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 16, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model