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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 20 at the 33

Cleveland Browns 6 – New England Patriots 24

What Actually Happened

(14:39) 3-C.York 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.09 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 33, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 43, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT +0.52 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model