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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 57

Cleveland Browns 9 – New England Patriots 24

What Actually Happened

(7:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 11-D.Peoples-Jones ran ob at NE 20 for 37 yards.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.07 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 57, worth -2.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 17, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model