4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 66

Cleveland Browns 15 – New England Patriots 38

What Actually Happened

(2:41) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep left to 11-D.Peoples-Jones to NE 44 for 22 yards (26-S.Wade) [58-A.Jennings].

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.39 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 66, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 24, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.47 EP