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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 21

Cleveland Browns 0 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(3:04) 3-C.York 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +2.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.08 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 31, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model