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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 11 at the 66

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(:54) 5-J.Camarda punts 52 yards to PIT 14, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.75 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model