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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 85

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(:32) 6-P.Harvin punts 42 yards to TB 43, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-J.Darden to TB 49 for 6 yards (89-G.Olszewski).

The Three Options

GO -2.57 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.30 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 85, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 43, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model