4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 59

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12

What Actually Happened

(4:25) 6-P.Harvin punts 44 yards to TB 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.67 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model