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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 76

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(2:19) 5-J.Camarda punts 52 yards to PIT 24, Center-97-Z.Triner. 82-S.Sims to PIT 48 for 24 yards (59-G.Avery, 29-R.White).

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.86 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.73 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP