Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 47

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12

What Actually Happened

(:38) 6-P.Harvin punts 30 yards to TB 17, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.08 EP
60% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.49 EP

KICK -1.10 EP

33% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
67% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model