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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12 – Pittsburgh Steelers 20

What Actually Happened

(5:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 29-R.White to PIT 11 for 2 yards (37-E.Riley).

The Three Options

GO +3.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.93 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model