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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 12

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:54) 3-R.Succop 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +1.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.44 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP