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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 19 at the 96

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:35) 6-P.Harvin punts 52 yards to TB 44, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-J.Darden to TB 46 for 2 yards (13-M.Boykin).

The Three Options

GO -3.97 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.08 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 96, worth -5.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

PUNT -2.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 53, worth -2.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model