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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 63

Washington Commanders 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(3:54) 5-T.Way punts 42 yards to CHI 21, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 12-V.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.85 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 63, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model