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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 73

Chicago Bears 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(2:34) 16-T.Gill punts 54 yards to WAS 19, Center-48-P.Scales. 15-D.Milne pushed ob at WAS 33 for 14 yards (35-K.Blasingame). PENALTY on WAS-34-C.Holmes, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 33.

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.55 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 73, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.30 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 31, worth -1.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model