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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 20

Washington Commanders 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(:50) 6-J.Slye 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.79 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 20, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model