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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 10

Washington Commanders 3 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 6-J.Slye 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.82 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 10, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model