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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 15 at the 82

Washington Commanders 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(9:27) 5-T.Way punts 58 yards to CHI 24, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 12-V.Jones to CHI 34 for 10 yards (88-A.Rogers; 39-J.Reaves).

The Three Options

GO -3.27 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.11 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 82, worth -5.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 40, worth -2.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model