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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 63

Washington Commanders 6 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(8:18) 5-T.Way punts 54 yards to CHI 9, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 12-V.Jones MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by WAS-34-C.Holmes at CHI 6.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.97 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 63, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model