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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Chicago Bears
4th & 16 at the 48
Chicago Bears 7 – Washington Commanders 12
What Actually Happened
(2:34) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete short middle to 17-I.Smith-Marsette.
The Three Options
GO
-0.64 EP
What Happened
-
26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +2.96 EP
- 74% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 48, worth -1.88 EP
KICK
-0.57 EP
- 34% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
- 66% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT
-0.46 EP
Model's Pick
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.46 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
