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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q2
Chicago Bears
4th & 1 at the 1
Chicago Bears 0 – Washington Commanders 0
What Actually Happened
(11:25) 24-K.Herbert left guard to WAS 1 for no gain (90-M.Sweat; 55-C.Holcomb).
The Three Options
GO
+4.06 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.89 EP
- 36% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 1, worth +0.80 EP
KICK
+1.91 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT
-0.19 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
