4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 27

Cincinnati Bengals 28 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(11:25) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short left to 85-T.Higgins (22-C.Armstrong).

The Three Options

GO +2.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.45 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 27, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 37, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model