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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 66

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 28

What Actually Happened

(9:12) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to CIN 23, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor. ATL-28-M.Ford was injured during the play. PENALTY on ATL-28-M.Ford, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 23.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.80 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 66, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 24, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model