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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 15 at the 66

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 35

What Actually Happened

(2:01) 13-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to CIN 17, Center-48-L.McCullough. 11-T.Taylor pushed ob at CIN 21 for 4 yards (12-K.Hodge).

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.73 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 66, worth -3.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 24, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model